Quake Doom

Posted on April 14, 2008

No, not video games but the conclusion of a study of the possibility of major earthquakes in California.

California will almost surely suffer a major earthquake, and possibly a catastrophic one, within the next 30 years, scientists said on Monday in the most comprehensive forecast for the state.

California faces nearly a 100 percent chance of being hit by a magnitude 6.7 quake– the size of the Northridge quake (1994) — within the next 30 years. The analysis found a nearly 50 percent chance that California would be rocked by a magnitude 7.5 quake, which is capable of inflicting catastrophic damage if it is centered under a big city like LA or San Fran.

The chance of a 7.5 magnitude quake hitting Southern California was pegged at 37%, compared to 15% in Northern California, largely because the 1906 San Francisco earthquake relieved stress from the San Andreas Fault there.

The 1906 San Francisco quake was thought to have been a magnitude of around 7.8 or higher. The last quake of that size in Southern California was in 1857.

Seems there is only one fitting response to all this. As the knights of Monty Python (Holy Grail) responded to the killer rabbit — Run Away! Run Away!