Windy Weather Wisdom

Posted on April 9, 2008

Today, Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University made his annual hurricane prediction for the summer season in the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic areas. He always makes a prediction in December and then modifies it in April. This year he moved it upward a little to forecast 15 storms, 8 of those hurricanes, and 4 intense.

You may be familiar with his forecasts. If so, you know he has received some criticism the last two years because his predictions have been pretty far off. Far off for him, that is, because he usually does pretty well.

I am no meteorologist by any stretch but have felt, at least for the storms in the Gulf of Mexico, that there was a great cleansing effect that took place in 2005 when Katrina struck. Subsequent to that, I have felt there would be a lessened likelihood of major storms in that area which may last up to 5 years. You will note that most storms in the last 2 years that seemed certain to enter the Gulf as strong storms, either lost intensity just prior or else veered into Mexico, especially in the Yucatan area. For the 2008 season, any strong storms would seem to find more favorable environments along the eastern coast with the best chance for damage from upper Florida to North Carolina.

*All of this forecasting is via my magic 8-ball.

8 Ball